Modern Democratic Elections Equate To Money Not People 

By Gbenga Akinmoyo

INTRODUCTION

Many political commentators have advocated for the practice of Democracy as the best form of government in administering the affairs of state, whereby the government is generated and run for the people and by the people through the conduct of general elections. As far back as 1979, Nigeria departed from the model practiced by its colonial masters in the United Kingdom, which uses the parliamentary system and opted for the presidential system, based on the framework used by the United States of America for centuries and self-adjudged to be the idealist model of democratic governance. In this article, amongst other things, we want to reflect on three recent elections that held in both climes (Nigeria & USA) to examine whether the system of government is truly democratic and pinnacle fundamentally on the Will of the People, or whether that is a mere ruse and an outdated rhetoric in contemporary societies. Furthermore, we want to consider the growing contention in some ranks that the outcomes are dependent on highly monetised campaigns and financial inducement of voters, whether through direct or indirect incentivization. 

A REVIEW OF THE EDO STATE 2024 GOVENORSHIP ELECTION

On the 21st September 2024, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) conducted Governorship Election in Edo State, situated in the South-South geo-political zone of Nigeria. You will recall that the immediate past Governor, Godwin Obaseki, was completing a second 4-year term having been elected in 2016 on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and later on the platform of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2020. As a sitting Governor, Obaseki sought, though unsuccessfully, to hand over to his preferred successor, in person of Asue Ighodalo the flag-bearer of the PDP in the governorship election, who was defeated by the opposition APC candidate, Senator Monday Okpebholo by 291,667 against 247,274 votes; who has now been sworn-in despite proposed court challenges by the PDP.For the declared winner, although the elected governor won the popular vote on the APC platform; he also won the majority votes cast by accredited voters in at least 25% of votes in 11 out of the 18 Local Government Areas of Edo State; yet considering the bigger picture, we must ask how popular was this mandate?It is worthy of note that INEC announced ahead of the elections that out of a total number of 2,629,025 registered voters, (though not all Permanent Voters Cards were collected) preparatory to the election; therefore voter-turnout on election day reflected less than 22% of total registered voters out of which the eventual declared winner actually emerged with approximately half of the valid votes (that is 11% of registered voters). By simple deduction, this means that a staggering 89% of voters were either in opposition or indifferent of the entire process, which should be of great concern.We submit for review that the defeat of Governor Obaseki impliedly raises questions about the performance of the former governor’s stewardship over the last eight years and impliedly suggests a Vote of No Confidence on the former governor.Did the people of Edo State become tired of the Obaseki-styled policies and desire a change of personnel, political party and ideology? In some quarters, it was rumoured that there was voter apathy; turnout was lob-sided; and the winning ticket simply went to the highest bidder, with the APC being more scientific in their financial inducement to voters, hereby raising the question of whether voters exercised their franchise by Inducement or Conscience? Whatever conclusion you come to, the records will show in years to come that, it was the people of Edo State who decided the outcome.

REVIEW OF UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Turning to the race for the White House held on 4th November 2024, for probably the first time in the American electoral history, one of the major spotlights hovered over the electoral process given the shenanigans that played out four years ago and in particular the adamant protestations from the Trump Camp alleging that he was rigged-out in 2020; a ferociously engineered campaign which led to the insurrection and assault on American democratic traditions that manifested on the 6th January 2021 at Capitol Hill in the full glare of the whole world.

The elections were conducted against the savoury backdrop of an incumbent President Joe Biden being forced to jettison his personal bid for a re-election upon the Democratic Party ticket (albeit at the eleventh hour); the somewhat undemocratic imposition of his deputy, Vice-President Karmala Harris as the party’s flag-bearer; and the re-emergence of former President Donald Trump as the presidential candidate of the Republican Party, who was bidding to be only the second American president to win two non-consecutive terms. He was attempting to follow the footsteps President Grover Cleveland who became 22nd elected president of America from 4th March 1885 to 1889 and returned again as 24th elected president between 4th March 1893 and 4th March 1897. (Source: stacker.com).But that was child’s play in the pre-election theatrics when compared to the first and second assassination attempts on the Republican candidate, former president Trump. The first futile attempt occurred on the 13th July 2024 at the open-air campaign rally near Butler, Pennsylvania where he was shot and wounded on the upper right ear; the second attempt barely two months later on 15th September 2024, while golfing at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida. President-Elect Donald Trump survived both attempts and the spiritualist cynics may postulate that the Alpha & Omega probably saved him for a divine project.It is perhaps not a real coincidence that on that same day the 13th July 2024 the renowned Tesla and SpaceX, Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Elon Musk, endorsed Donald Trump as his choice for the next U.S president. Prior to this Musk had been a former Democrat; supporter of Obama for President in 2007; donated thousands of dollars to both Obama and fellow Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton; critique of Trump’s character in a 2016 interview with CNBC; voted for Joe Biden in 2020. Now out of the blues becoming a supporter of a Republican candidate came as a significantly dramatic turn of events. It was subsequently reported (as at 26 October 2024) that Elon Musk had donated more than $132 million to the campaign of the Republican candidate, paying for amongst other things, operations to boost voter turnout for Trump in battleground states and donating $1million per day to registered voters in swing states who signed an online petition. In America they are called “donations”, but in Nigeria this kind of spending is commonly referred to in Nigeria as “Vote Buying”.It is very interesting that there were 7 states that were identified as swing state battle grounds which would ultimately decide the fate of the elections and all seven fell to the Trump camp and the financial generosity of Elon Musk. Is it therefore any wonder that Donald Trump won the popular vote by 76,877,950 votes as against 74,345,207 votes mustered by Karmala Harris? But probably more importantly, Trump clinched 312 Electoral College votes to defeat Harris who won only 226 electoral college votes, while the target of 270 was the minimum needed to be declared winner.Today, the out-going President Joe Biden is echoing the American democratic spirit saying that the American people have spoken through the ballot; the electoral process is fair and everybody must respect the result as they prepare themselves for a peaceful transition on 20th January 2025. Who is Biden seeking to reassure with these utterances, when even the unborn children in the womb knows all too well that votes were simultaneously bought and sold in the “Free and Fair” 2024 American presidential elections. I guess the statement aims to give a vote of confidence to the electoral umpire in contrast to Nigerian politicians who always blame INEC for their defeat. But in all sincerity, can America stand amongst the community of national democracies and honestly say that the American people genuinely elected their 47th President as the next occupant of the White House without monetisation? Again, we hereby raise the question of whether the voters exercised their franchise by Inducement or their Conscience. Whatever conclusion you may come to, the records will show that it was the people of America who decided the outcome of the election.

REVIEW OF THE ONDO STATE 2024 GOVERNORHIP ELECTION

You may recall that we published a predictive article in July 2024 titled, “DEPUTY WILL BECOME GOVERNOR-ELECT IN NOVEMBER 2024” in which we suggested some imminent political developments post the conduct of party primaries and forecasting that the governorship election then slated for 16th November 2024 would be determined subject to a number of considerations which we identified as follows: -The handling of the immediate aftermath of party primaries and internal democratic mechanisms between the major participants;Financing prosecution of the election within the legally permitted financial framework and spending parameters; The incumbency factor and its impact at the national and sub-national levels, particularly as an off-cycle election holding immediately after Edo State elections that was scheduled for October 2024.We wrote back then in July that; “Given that this is an off-cycle election with all concentration on one single job, this exercise eliminates the confusion that many voters might have otherwise faced if there were multiple elections. It would seem a simple choice for most voters to decide between the APC and the PDP; between Aiyedatiwa and Agboola; between the Broom and the Umbrella, being the iconic symbols of both parties. That being the case, the integrity, capability, experience and character of the two candidates ought to be major considerations for the average voter. The manifestoes of the APC and PDP and what they mean in the context of Ondo State should be of primary concern. The projects, programmes and policies that each contestant has in store to offer the electorate must be of paramount importance in making a decision that will inevitably affect the lives of residents of Ondo State in the next four years; but how many voters really listen to this message and take them into full consideration?”Much of what we anticipated and boldly predicted came to manifestation as early as the preliminary stages of politicking and campaign exchanges in August. In summary, the APC arguably handled the fallout of their primaries much better than the PDP, with Senator Jimoh Ibrahim and Chief Olusola Oke SAN promptly reigned-in by the National party bigwigs, whilst in the PDP the likes of Otunba Bamidele Akingboye(OBA) and  Olusola Nehemiah Ebiseni (ONE) were allowed to leave their fold and acquire governorship candidature on the platforms of SDP and LP respectively, (though INEC reversed the latter at the eleventh hour).The Incumbency factor and federal might are alleged to have played a very significant role in both Edo and Ondo elections without necessarily seeing the invisible hand of the Presidency. However, of particular interest was the financial management of the campaigns and electioneering by the major political parties. Putting it bluntly, money proved to be a monumental catalyst in deciding the desire of the impoverished electorate at a time which stark poverty faced many households, which were inevitably influenced by inducements and translated into reciprocal votes to their suitors as generally witnessed and reported by Election Observers.The 17-candidate governorship election turned into a one-sided two-horse race with the APC candidate Hon. Lucky Aiyedatiwa amassing a total of 366,781 votes to defeat his closest rival Hon Agboola Ajayi of the PDP who got 117,845 votes and the African Democratic Party (ADP) candidate, Adeyemi Nejo finishing a remote third with a miniature 1,162 votes.According to results declared by INEC, out of 1,757,205 registered eligible voters in the state (those with PVC’s), only 510,855 turned up at the polling units and were accredited to vote representing a turnout of approximately 29%. However, from declared figures, the APC candidate is reported to have won in all of the 18 Local Government Areas of Ondo State, a novel development which has not happened before in Ondo State and his total votes amounted to an impressive 71.79% of accredited voters, in spite of the generally low turnout.The Ondo State election outcome is similar to the Edo State and American models, viewed through the lens of election campaigns, financing and prosecuting the chase for voter’s sympathy. It seems like the APC were more scientific in their financial inducement to voters, hereby raising the question of whether voters exercised their franchise by Inducement or a strong conviction to their Conscience. At a time when Nigerians are groaning under the harsh economic realities; inflationary pressures and astronomical cost of living, it defies logic that the ruling APC would be increasingly popular. Whatever conclusion you may come to after your own personal critical assessment, the records will show that it was the people of Ondo State who in 2024 decided the outcome that will lead to the swearing-in Hon. Lucky Orimisan Aiyedatiwa as the next Governor of Ondo State come February 2025.

CONCLUSIONS

From an Ancient Greek base, Democracy found its roots as a system of government in which state power is vested in the people or the general population of a state and from the forgone analysis that still appears to be the case in modern times. But the crucial question is “which people”, the ordinary citizen or the moneybags? We cannot get away from the practical realities that whether practiced in Edo State, America or Ondo State, the democratic exercise through conduct of elections is a process that is heavily and overwhelmingly monetized at various levels and degrees. It is perhaps safe to conclude that democracy has become a game of money rather than a system “by, of and for the people”. As Nigerians in Osun and Ekiti States prepare for the next round of off-cycle governorship elections, can we anticipate any different outcome? The next General Elections will hold in 2027 all over the country and we would submit that a great deal needs be done to ensure the election outcomes reflect the true will of the people rather than a predictable spontaneous response to stomach infrastructure. We look forward to receiving your comments on this article.

This article was written by Gbenga Akinmoyo (Hon GaRo), who is a legal practitioner; a political & public affairs analyst; an Executive Director of Rebuild Nigeria 360°and Co-Founder/CEO of LeadIFollow Limited (+234 803 660 9090; +44 7481 306 823; or garointer@gmail.com).25th November 2024