How Finishing Fourth In The Premier League Is No Guarantee For CL This Season

The Premier League top-four race is heating up. Just eight points separate Manchester United in third and Brentford in eighth. Finishing fourth might seem a shoo-in for Champions League qualification, but this season it is no guarantee. Here’s why…

Top four state of play

Manchester United currently occupy third spot in the Premier League. Erik ten Hag’s side are one point above fourth-placed Tottenham but have two games in hand.

Spurs are two points ahead of fifth-placed Newcastle but have played two more matches than the Magpies, while Liverpool are five points further back in sixth, level with Brighton and Brentford.

How finishing fourth might not be safe

In normal circumstances, the top four teams in the Premier League qualify for the Champions League group stage. So as it stands, that would be Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham.

However, there are also other routes into the competition. Finishing fourth and not qualifying for next season’s competition depends on the performances of Manchester United and Chelsea on the domestic and European stage.

If Chelsea, currently 10th in the Premier League, win the Champions League, they will automatically qualify for the group stage of next season’s competition no matter where they finish in the top flight.

Similarly, if Manchester United win the Europa League, they will go straight into the group stage of next season’s Champions League even if they drop out of the top four in the Premier League.

UEFA rules state there can only be a maximum of five English teams in the Champions League, which means if the above scenario was to happen then fourth place in the Premier League would miss out on Champions League qualification and drop into the Europa League group stage.

Chelsea take on Real Madrid in the Champions League quarter-finals, while Manchester United face Sevilla in the Europa League last eight.

Predictor: Spurs’ top-four probability drops to 24%

Tottenham have a 23 per cent chance of finishing in the Premier League’s top four this season amid uncertainty over head coach Antonio Conte’s future.

Spurs slipped up in the race for Champions League football on Saturday, letting a two-goal lead slip late on at Southampton to draw 3-3.

The result sparked a furious rant from Conte in his post-match press conference, claiming his players are “selfish” and “cannot play under pressure and stress”, with Spurs set to make a decision on whether the Italian stays in charge imminently.

According to Opta, Spurs are predicted to finish in sixth place at the end of the campaign, with just a 23.9 per cent chance of finishing in the top four.

The two teams below them in the table – Newcastle and Liverpool – both have a higher chance of securing a spot at Europe’s top table this season, due to the two games in hand they have over Spurs.

In his post-match rant at Southampton, Conte predicted that Spurs could even finish lower than sixth, if they show the same kind of mentality for the rest of the season.

“There are 10 games to go and some people think we can fight. Fight for what with this spirit, this attitude, this commitment? What? For seventh, eighth, 10th place? I am not used to this position.

“I’m really upset and everyone has to take their responsibility. Not only the club, the manager and the staff, the players have to be involved in this situation because it is time to change this situation if Tottenham want to change.

“If they want to continue in this way, they can change the manager, a lot of managers, but the situation cannot change. Believe me.”